“I love Canada” said Donald Trump in a CBC video, September 2015.
Well, we hate to break it to you Donald but we don’t love you and it’s not us - it’s you.
According to a recent poll conducted by Insights West, 78 per cent of Canadians believe it will be bad for Canada if Trump is elected. As far as polls go, 78 per cent is a large majority. The only thing 78 per cent of Canadians have agreed on recently is that cheese and gravy is the best dressing for fries.
Considering the Great White North is a nation that proudly boasts free health care, equal access to opportunity (regardless of race or religion) and a respect for women, it’s no wonder we’re not blowing our trumpets for Trump. Considering he’s an elite real estate mongrel who releases racist and sexist slurs as comfortably as we slather our pancakes with Maple Syrup, “incompatible” might be an understatement.
Yet, is this it? Is our dislike for The Trump purely a matter of personality and cultural differences? Or is it about more than that? Are 78% of Canadians justified in our conviction that Trump will be bad for our country? Is this presidential election solely a concern of large, powerful people in large powerful cities or should we be concerned for the future of our Okanagan?
To answer this, let’s take a look at the potential negatives that could hit Kelowna following a Trump presidency.
NAFTA (North American Fair Trade Act) essentially means that products can be traded across Mexican, Canadian and US borders for free. In Trump talk, it's the “worst trade deal ever signed in the history of the USA”. At least that's what he said in a live speech in Pennsylvania.
Trump perceives NAFTA as a development deal that aids Mexico at the expense of the USA. Because of this understanding, and Trump’s all-consuming fear of the Mexican bandito wreaking havoc in the USA, his platform includes a ‘renegotiation of NAFTA’ or, if this fails, leaving NAFTA.
As Trump follows protectionist trade principles, a ‘renegotiation’ of NAFTA means eliminating free trade and imposing tariffs. In other words, no more cheap hershey's cookies and cream.
Almost all economists agree that free trade generally brings tons of benefits at the cost of a couple short term inconveniences. In other words, free trade is the gym to our beach bod. According to Global Affairs Canada, after NAFTA was signed in 1994, the North American economy has more than doubled in size. The combined GDP (gross domestic product) for Canada, U.S. and Mexico has increased from $8 trillion to $20.6 trillion. Labour productivity in Canada has also increased by 14 percent. 78% of the products created by this increased labour productivity are exported to our NAFTA partners.
Considering these factors; if Trump manages to ‘renegotiate’ this deal to omit free trade, Kelowna would stand to lose. Essentially, it would mean that we’ll see an increase in the price of all US and Mexican products while the USA and Mexico would see an increase in the cost of our products.
For example, due to Trump’s protectionist policies, wine produced in the Okanagan would cost more in the USA and Mexico. As a result, we would lose our price advantage and our southern neighbours would be less likely to purchase our wine. As the USA is by far the largest importer of Canadian and BC wine, this could certainly harm our industry and economy.
The cost of US and Mexican products would also increase. So, have you got a thing for coating your desk in 3M Post-It notes, baking scrumptious goods with KitchenAid appliances or wolfing down Hershey’s Cookies and Cream? Well, if Trump succeeds in renegotiating NAFTA, these guilty pleasures, among other essential US products, could cost a pretty penny. And, as we all know, life without Post It note pranks and cookies and cream simply isn’t worth it.
Understanding and writing down all the potential consequences of a Trump presidency would be extensive. This list might include the detrimental effects of a US president who ignores clear scientific evidence to state that climate change is a Chinese hoax.
The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 6, 2012
Trump’s intentions to eliminate Obama’s Climate Action Plan and cancel the Paris Climate Change Agreement makes most lovers of nature shudder, and that’s not just because of the drastic climate change which could follow.
An exhaustive list might also include changes to the Canadian population as hundreds of Americans beeline for the border in search of a land overflowing with free healthcare, religious tolerance and the world’s best hockey.
Of course, this list would also have to mention the increased complications involved in travelling. Canadians would be forced to reach tasteless levels, coating their clothing with little Canadian flags to make certain we’re not mistaken for our southern brothers and sisters.
Of course, this list might also include the positive effects that Trump could have on Canada. (Positive effects we’d love to hear about, so please post a comment if you have any). It might also take on a skeptical tone. Afterall, Trump is a businessman. Perhaps a business approach to Canada would be taken and the negative effects to our economy would be miniscule. In addition, the USA is a political system infamous for stagnation, perhaps Trump won’t manage to pass any of his policies.
Nevertheless, with the US Presidential election on the horizon, it’s time for Kelowna to buckle up. From this point onwards, anything could happen. That’s perhaps the most interesting part of this whole fiasco. We can write articles about the effect of a Trump presidency on Kelowna however, these are pure speculation. Afterall, this is a changeable presidential candidate who’s outlined so few concrete policy initiatives, anything is possible. While this unpredictability makes the next few months interesting, it’s also what makes them so frightening. Our jobs, economy, foreign policy and environment are in the lurch, the last place they should be.
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