Kelowna wouldn't be too badly hurt by US tariffs

In the grand scheme of things, Kelowna exports very little to the US.

So, the city's potential harm from threatened 25% US tariffs is low, according to a new study by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

The national chamber's Business Date Lab crunched numbers to assess potential tariff impacts.

Kelowna came in No. 28 on the list of 41 cities with a tariff exposure index of minus 9.9%.

That indicates that exporting to the US is a small part of the Kelowna economy.

Kelowna's tariff exposure index of minus 9.9 is vastly different from No. 1-on-the-list Saint John, New Brunswick's exposure of 131.1%.

Saint John would be super vulnerable to any US tariffs because it's home to the Irving Oil Refinery, the largest crude oil refinery in Canada.

It can process over 320,000 barrels of crude daily with more than 80% exported to the US.

New Brunswick also exports seafood and forestry products, mainly to Maine.

However, 296 Kelowna companies do export to the US and would be hurt if the US slaps a 25% tariff on goods coming into the country.

The Kelowna Chamber of Commerce is organizing a Canada-US Trade: Handling America-First Policies workshop for March 5 at UBC Okanagan.

On the panel will be Nick Arkle of Gorman Brothers Lumber and Grant Stevens from KF Aerospace.

Both those Central Okanagan companies export to the US and would certainly feel the pinch of a 25% US tariff.

The Canadian chamber's study also compiled statistics and rankings for each of the 41 cities on the list.

For Kelowna they came in like this:

- Goods exported from Kelowna to the US amount to $385 million annually (for a 37 out of 41 ranking)

- That amounts to $1,559 annually per capita for Kelowna exports to the US (for a 40 out of 41 ranking)

- Kelowna exports to the US represent 2.8% of Kelowna's GDP (gross domestic product) (for a 37 out of 41 ranking)

- 82.8% of Kelowna's exports are to the US (for a 19 out of 41 ranking)

- the population of Metropolitan Kelowna (essentially the Central Okanagan) is 246,894 (for a ranking of 19 out of 41)

- 296 Kelowna companies export to the US (for a ranking of 20 out of 41)

- Kelowna's overall GDP (gross domestic product) is $12.3 billion annually (for a 20 of 41 ranking)

- Kelowna's GDP per capita is $52,888 (for a ranking of 26 out of 41)

"Even with a 30-day pause, President Trump's executive order to impose tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States marks a major protectionist shift in US trade policy," wrote Stephen Tapp, the author of the Canadian chamber's 'Which Canadian Cities are Most Exposed to Trump's Tariffs' news release.

"A 25% tariff on all Canadian non-energy exports and a 10% tariff on Canada energy exports to the US (alongside tariffs on Mexico and China) will cause substantial economic disruptions for the global economy."

In fact, the tariff report, tariff exposure index and undated modelling from the Canadian chamber's Business Data Lab points to economic pain not just for Canadians, but Americans, and could cause a recession on both sides of the border.

The new chair of the Central Okanagan Economic Development Commission's advisory board, Sharon Hughes-Geekie, has already said that Kelowna companies should diversify to become less reliant on the US.

With a British Columbia location on the Pacific Rim, Kelowna companies can look to more lucrative Asian markets rather than tariff-threatened US markets.

Whether or not the tariffs actually become reality, Canadians have been put on alert and its resulted in a swell of national pride.

Canadians are vowing to work around the Americans by finding new markets for our goods, services and knowledge, buying more Canadian products and not buying US products.