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COVID-19 modelling shows BC's experience could be more like South Korea's than Italy's

British Columbia has release its “worst case scenario” data related to the COVID-19 pandemic but the numbers show the province believes it will more closely mirror the South Korean experience, rather than the situation in Italy.

A briefing offered today by health officials, including BC medical health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry, shows the province would be overwhelmed if it saw a scale of COVID-19 cases similar to Italy.

<who> Photo credit: File

But officials say the model shows BC is already developing a “cascading” approach to free up additional hospital and other capacity over time.

Data suggest travel restrictions and social distancing measures are beginning to have an impact and the trajectory of new cases in BC changed from a 24% average daily increase to 12% as of March 21 — but experts aren’t ready to predict that the curve is flattening.



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