'We're in a very different time': Digging up rivals' social media posts no longer a key to victory, BC pollster says
There have been “fundamental changes” in the way British Columbians feel about political candidates' old social media posts, one of the province’s best-known pollsters has said.
With more young people now eligible to vote – people who “grew up with social media” – we’re now in “a very different time,” Research Co.’s Mario Canseco said.
“Our ability to be really upset about the ways a specific politician feels about something is something that we've become completely desensitized [to], especially after 2016,” he explained.
He was asked in an interview on Friday about the BC NDP’s strategy of highlighting old posts from BC Conservative candidates as the race to lead the province heats up.
Premier David Eby’s party, with the aid of a BC United dossier on the BC Conservatives, has for months been focusing on what it considers extremism within the ranks of its rival on the right. It has also pointed to old photographs and videos that it considers embarrassing for the Conservatives.
But Canseco, a veteran analyst of BC politics, said younger people are “looking at things very differently.”
“They might be able to look at some of those old tweets and say, ‘It's okay. Maybe I said the same thing and it's somewhere online,’” he explained.
He added: “You know, there's an opportunity to connect on platforms, on a vision for the province, because right now, all we're getting, especially from the soundbites that get played over and over again, is: ‘Don't trust the other guy.’”
Failing to persuade younger voters might not be quite as disastrous for the NDP as it once would have been, however.
Canseco – whose analysis is supported by evidence from other pollsters – said younger voters are increasingly turning to the BC Conservatives, a phenomenon that is also playing out federally.
The Liberal government 'probably will fall by February or March' next year, pollster @mario_canseco says. He also thinks:
▶️ Election in spring ▶️ Trudeau will aim to surpass Chrétien in days served as PM ▶️ No senior Liberal has 'gravitas' to replace Trudeau#cdnpolipic.twitter.com/mjrPrFQBJU
Over-55s, Canseco said, are “now more likely to look at the NDP as the stable option.”
“This is a complete departure from the elections that we've had in this century, where the over-55s were more likely to say, ‘I'm sticking with Gordon Campbell and with Christy Clark.’ It was the 18-to-34 voter who was more progressive, more centre-left,’” he explained.
Today, however, that age group is “desperate for change.” The NDP has “taken the youth vote for granted,” he said, and is now “completely shocked” to find that they are turning to Rustad.
“I think that is part of the reason for the emphasis on health care,” Canseco added. “The whole pledge about everybody having a family doctor, it might be very complicated to do, but it's the kind of thing that speaks to the over-55 voter who we know casts ballots at a higher rate than their younger counterparts. The challenge for the Conservatives is, they probably have a lot of experience getting the vote out when it comes to calling people on the phone, figuring out if they cast a ballot or not, giving them a ride to the polls.
“How do you connect with the 18-to-34 year olds who aren't really used to this? And that is going to be one of the challenges that they're facing.”
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