Kelowna and Kamloops top list of Canadian cities at highest risk of wildfire

After an unprecedented fire season across Canada in 2023, insurance companies are assessing the risk going into the summer of 2024.

MyChoice Insurance has done a case study in an attempt to identify regions of the country that are at the highest risk for wildfire, and has identified a top 20 cities.

Last summer, Canada had over 5,000 wildfires. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, the total area burned was a shocking 17,347,637 hectares, marking the highest in 40 years.

Out of the provinces, British Columbia and Alberta experienced the worst fire season. BC alone saw 2,840,754 hectares burned.

Using two key metrics—the Forecast Severity Rating (FSR) and the Forecast Severity Anomaly (FSA)—the overall risk score for each city was determined by combining the average of the two metrics from May to September.

At the top of the resulting list was Kamloops, with a score of 9.4/10. Kelowna isn’t far behind, with a score of 8.6.

Other cities such as Saskatoon, SK (8.8), Regina, SK (8.6) also show significantly elevated wildfire risk.

Most cities in Ontario remain relatively safe, according to the data, compared to the rest of Canada. Only a few northern cities, such as Timmins and Kenora, fall into the higher risk category for wildfires.

With rising wildfire risk comes rising insurance costs. Manitoba saw the highest year-over-year home insurance inflation in April 2024 at 14.2%, followed by Alberta at 11.4% and Saskatchewan at 11.0%.

BC experienced a 10.7% increase, while Ontario had the lowest rise at 7.5%.

"While we are seeing insurance companies in the US pulling out of high-risk areas due to the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires, especially in California, the situation in Canada remains different," said Aren Mirzaian, CEO of MyChoice.

"In Canada, the insurance market has shown resilience, and we have not yet reached the point where insurers are withdrawing coverage.”

“However, the unprecedented scale of wildfires last year is a clear warning signal,” Mirzaian adds. “We need to be proactive in understanding the risks and ensuring that Canadian home insurance offerings are robust enough to provide adequate coverage in these challenging times."