Is Kelowna's population shrinking?

Who's leaving?

Why are they leaving?

Where are they going?

When will it stop?

There are more questions than answers when it comes to BC Statistics's estimates and projections for the Central Okanagan's population.

What we do know is that in May 2024 KelownaNow made a big deal of Metropolitan Kelowna's (essentially the Central Okanagan) population surpassing the quarter of a million mark with a BC Stat's estimate/projection of 256,944.

There was jubilation and analysis -- we're a big city, people love Kelowna and want to move here, we're the 19th largest metro area by population in Canada.

Even in September 2025, after the economy had slowed and the sheen had come off of Kelowna a bit because of housing unaffordability, low wages,high cost of living and crime, there was talk that the metro region was still eking out some population growth.

At the time, BC Stats' was projecting that by the end of 2025 the Central Okanagan (Metro Kelowna) would have a population of 261,432.

Today, BC Stats has changed its tune.

The estimates and projections tool adjusted the 2025 population to be 251,723 (phew, still above a quarter of a million) and put the 2026 projection at 247,389.

What a deflation.

Not only does it mean some people are leaving and others aren't bothering to move here, but it's a status thing -- our population is now below the celebrated 250,000.

It's also a shock, a reversal of fortunes, from Kelowna's previous bragging point of being the fastest-growing metro area in Canada from 2016 to 2021 and the go-to city to relocate for enviable beauty and lifestyle.

"At this point we don't know if we actually have a shrinking population or one that's gaining slightly," Krista Mallory, manager of the Central Okanagan Economic Development Commission, told KelownaNow.

"BC Stats makes frequent updates with its estimates and projections tools, so it's subject to adjustment."

Thus said, it's totally plausible that Metro Kelowna's population has slipped from 261,432 to 247,389 for a loss of 14,043 people, representing a 5% slip.

A 5% drop isn't tragic, but it could indicate a more concerning trend.

Anecdotally, Mallory has heard of people moving out of Kelowna because they just can't make ends meet with the high cost of living and housing.

Usually, these people are headed to Alberta for higher-paying jobs and cheaper housing.

Looking at it the other way, people aren't clamouring to move to Kelowna like they once did.

Sure, we still have incredible natural beauty here, mild winters and offer an enviable lifestyle and quality of life.

But, some who potentially consider Kelowna might back off when they see various reports in the news about the high cost of living and housing and so-called big-city problems like traffic and crime related to homelessness, addiction and mental health issues.

"The gold standard for population is Statistics Canada's every-five-year census," pointed out Mallory.

"The next census is this year, so we'll get a better indication."

StatsCan does estimates that put Metro Kelowna's population at 251,648 in 2024 and 254,605 in 2025.

StatsCan has not released any 2026 estimates yet.