BC NDP has 'substantial lead' ahead of election, BC Conservatives cementing 2nd place: study

The BC NDP has a “sustained, substantial lead” in the province ahead of an election this year, according to a new study.

BC United, meanwhile, appears to be the victim of a “shifting political landscape” as the Conservative Party of BC maintains its second-place position.

Leger’s poll, which was conducted between March 22 and 24 and involved 1,002 BC adults, found that Premier David Eby’s party was backed by 43 per cent of decided voters.

The BC Conservatives won the support of 26 per cent of respondents, while only 18 per cent said they plan to vote for BC United.

The election must take place on or before Oct. 19.

“The surge in support for the BC Conservatives underscores the shifting political landscape in British Columbia, with John Rustad’s leadership resonating particularly strongly among voters in Metro Vancouver, pointing to a possible shift in seat distribution,” said Nicole Brassard, a vice president at Leger, in a release.

Previous polls, including one conducted by Leger in September 2023, have shown the BC Conservatives beating out BC United.

In January 2023, however, BC United was 16 points ahead of the BC Conservatives, according to Leger.

The BC Conservatives are not connected with the Conservative Party of Canada in any way, but many analysts and commentators have attributed their success to voters mistakenly assuming a link between the parties.

Speaking to KelownaNow earlier this year, BC United Leader Kevin Falcon said the rise of the BC Conservatives is “just voter confusion,” with voters thinking, “Pierre Poilievre, that’s us.”

Falcon also said he’s “suspicious” that the NDP has been providing support to the BC Conservatives as a way to split the right-wing vote.

But, according to an in-depth look at BC politics published this week by the Angus Reid Institute, Rustad’s BC Conservatives hold a strong lead among federal Conservative voters.

According to a projection posted late last month by election analysts 338Canada, BC United could end up with just four MLAs after the next election.

The NDP, according to this prediction, would win a majority with 68 seats, while the BC Conservatives would become the official opposition with 19 seats.

Leger’s poll, which was released on Thursday, also suggests that a majority of British Columbians support Poilievre’s campaign to abolish the carbon tax.

More than half – 56 per cent – of respondents to the survey said they back the “Axe the Tax” policy, while 29 per cent opposed it.

Poilievre visited a gas station in BC earlier this week, where he lambasted the “cruel” carbon tax.